MLB Play of the Days (POD's): 6-4 This Post Season
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I love this match up in favor of the Yankees and I'll start out by telling you what most won't. The time off for the Phillies won't help especially now that they are going up against one of the best pitchers in the game. In the last three world series at least one team has had time off and it has not led to good match ups. The Phillies who had 6 days off just like this year were able to win against the Rays, but scored just 5 runs in the first two games including 3 in game one in a 3-2 victory. The year before the Rockies were on 8 days off and they scored 2 total runs in the first two games combined while the Red Sox scored 13 in game #1 to cruise as they were off 2 days off. In 2006 it was the Tigers with 6 days off and they scored 5 runs combined in game 1 and 2 and just 2 runs in Game 1. So an average of 2 runs in game 1 for teams with the long off time. You can compare some of these offenses including the Phillies who only scored 3 runs last year on 6 days off. With that said they'll face a better starter in Sabathia as they faced Kazmir last year.
Sabathia has been masterful at home with a 2.93 ERA at home and even better at night where he has a 2.85 ERA and a 16-5 record. He faced the Phillies earlier in the year and gave up 9 hits, 3 ER in 8 innings. It's a quality performance but not a shut down performance and this start came in May. For those who don't remember CC gradually progressed throughout the year as is obvious with his 2.74 ERA post all star break compared to his 3.86 before. Now some Phillies hitters had success against Sabathia, but that was when he was on 3 days rest with the Brewers, and their team collectively has just a .255 average in only 94 AB 40 of which come from Raul Ibanez. So again they don't have that much experience vs. CC which will ultimately end with them shaking their heads on how to figure him out. CC is very tough against left handed hitters who have a .198 average with a .560 ops that should help shutting out the three key hitters in Utley, Howard, and Ibanez early in this game.
Yankees on the other side have 194 AB vs. Lee and know him much better including their .294 collective average. Up and down this lineup the Yankees have had success Jeter .407avg, Teixera .391, Posada .286 2HR, Swisher .333, Matsui .294 who can hit lefties, ARod .333 2HR, and Cabrera a decent .273 vs. Lee. Only Damon .091 and Cano .222 struggle vs. Lee which will allow enough of a hole for Lee to get out of jams like he has in the past against the Yankees as in two starts this year Lee went 12 innings gave up 16 hits 5 BB but just 4 ER. That's 21 base runners in 21 innings. I look for the righties Jeter/Posada/Arod/Teixera to have a big game 1 and carry this team as right handed hitters are hitting .283 (+.42 compared to lefties), .319 OBP (+.61 over lefties) and .732 OPS (+1.54 over lefties). Lee is dominant against lefties no question and I see Damon, Cano, Cabrera struggling big time, but the others will come up big including lefty Matsui who is an experienced vet that can hit left handed pitching. After all this Yankee team at home has a .280 average and are scoring 6.14 runs per 9 innings vs. LHP. Phillies on the other hand 5.28 runs per 9 vs. LHP on the road this year with a .253 average. Sabathia has only given up 5 HR to lefties this year and that's how they get their runs. Looks like the power will have to come from Jayson Werth tonight and he'll be the key if Sabathia can get Werth out I think the Yankees win easily.
Okay, by far the two best left handed pitchers in the game today. I mentioned the time off for the phillies being a key factor in terms of why the Yankees will take this game. HIstory has proven that the offense just is not there when you have that much time off. Could also have to deal with a #1 starter. However the runs will be limited in this as game 1's in World Series have shown. Despite two great offenses the starters will rule in this game tonight.
Phillies are under 9-2-1 in their last 12 interleague road games.
Yankees under 8-0 last 8 as a favorite -151-200
Under 10-1 in last 12 home
18-5 in their last 23 home vs. teams with winning record
7-1-1 Sabathias last 9 home starts
4-0 in last 4 meetings.
Total Base props Game #1
Take Texeira -135 over Utley (1.5-Dime)
Rollins -125 over Damon (1-Dime)[/]
Teixera again has the advantage based on how much he has seen Cliff Lee and a .391 average compared to Utley 0-3 vs. Sabathia and limited experience. Teixera started to turn the corner late in the Angels series while Utley remains ice cold. Sabathia dominates lefty's and Lee struggles vs. righties I'll take my chances with Teixera at -135.
Rollins -125 over Damon who has a .091 average against Lee. Rollins on the other hand a switch hitter should see the ball well coming out of Sabathias hands here on Wednesday. Rollins actually is 4-11 against Sabathia and should provide some pop in the lineup.
